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November 7th, 2012

Election Prediction Fail

My presidential election prediction, that President Obama would win by a larger margin in both the popular and the electoral votes over Governor Romney, proved inaccurate. While President Obama was the victor in yesterday's election, the margin in the popular vote was within one or two percentage points out of over 100-million votes cast. The margin in the electoral votes was larger, but still much less than the margin in electoral votes four years ago.

I was correct in predicting the winner. I was also correct in my self-assessment that I'm not very good at making predictions in these matters.

One of my online friends who lives in Europe predicted the results more accurately than did I.

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  • 14 Apr 2020, 21:56
    We are over the top.
    Infections are going down, more people are leaving hospitals (walking) then that people enter them.
    The only statistic going up is the deaths at retirement homes. We didn't test…
  • 31 Mar 2020, 21:49
    We just discussed and set up schedules for on/off work till the end of May.
    With luck things start to pick up again here. Peak should be mid April.
  • 30 Mar 2020, 21:00
    We have Toilet paper in the shops.
    If you run out you can use newspaper (soak it and the dry it)
    :-)

    The number of weeks is deceptive. Incubation take about two weeks, So after the last person…
  • 30 Mar 2020, 20:30
    testing has picked up so the number of confirmed infected people goes up
    but the death rate isn't going exponential, it's still going up but increasing by about 10 deaths a day -we're just over 80…
  • 28 Mar 2020, 22:08
    A matter of weeks... as in, 24 weeks? 52 weeks? I keep seeing statements about three, six, nine, twelve, and eighteen months, with an increasing number of "experts" supporting the nine to eighteen…
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